Calibration Factors for STS Risk Model Predictions: Why, How and When They Are Used

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database is the world's premier adult cardiac surgery outcomes registry. This tutorial explains the following: how STS updates the risk models that are used to calculate the predicted risks of adverse events in the registry; why STS on a quarterly basis adjusts or “calibrates” the observed-to-expected ratios to equal 1 (O/E = 1), thereby effectively making the annual number of adverse events predicted by the model match the annual number of adverse events observed in the entire registry; the differences between the calibrated and uncalibrated O/E ratios; and how and when to use each.